Disney's latest live-action adaptation hit theaters this weekend -- a 4-day one at that -- and so far, 'TLM' is cleaning up in ticket sales ... projected to land on a record-setting box office haul, with an estimated $120 mil-$130 mil to its name by the time Monday rolls around.

Some analysts have the film pegged to make more than $130MM -- but Disney's hedging their bets, saying it'll probably be closer to $125 MM domestically. Overseas, the movie is said to likely draw an additional $80 mil ... so it could hit around $200 mil soon enough.

That's great for the Mouse House, as this movie reportedly had a budget of about $250 million -- so they need this one to continue doing numbers for a bit to turn a profit.

While there's certainly excitement for the debut weekend, time will tell if Ariel has legs to go the distance in the weeks thereafter. As we reported, "Aladdin" star Mena Massoud recently opined he didn't think it'd hit a billion like his movie did ... which came out pre-pandemic.

Funny enough, with these estimated figures, 'Mermaid' is actually on pace to overtake what "Aladdin" achieved in 2019 -- and it's on a new list of Memorial Day weekend titans. If all goes according to plan, 'TLM' should sit at fourth behind "Top Gun: Maverick," "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End," and "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull."